COVID-19 Online Forecast Bulgaria Statistics Forum


Bulgaria / Forecast of the Coronavirus Epidemic / Update 14.07.2020
Confirmed Recover Deaths Active Forecast 1 Forecast 2


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Today = 14-07-2020 / analyze starting from = 2020-3-23 to 13-07-2020
a=122.2534932383 / b=2239.425106564 / c=0.00013972308554211

dayt[i]x[i]u[i]y(t[i])(x[i]-y(t[i]))2/y(t[i]
2020-3-2331955.27330740.87
2020-3-2442125.35731734.99
2020-3-2552355.4632726.37
2020-3-2662535.53333821.76
2020-3-2772815.63835013.61
2020-3-2883135.7463616.49
2020-3-2993245.7813736.46
2020-3-30103345.8113856.77
2020-3-31113745.9243971.36
2020-4-1123925.9714090.77
2020-4-2134226.0454220
2020-4-3144416.0894350.07
2020-4-4154526.1144480.02
2020-4-5164746.1614620.29
2020-4-6174886.194760.29
2020-4-7185126.2384900.95
2020-4-8195276.2675040.97
2020-4-9205466.3035191.34
2020-4-10215566.3215340.86
2020-4-11225716.3475490.81
2020-4-12235786.365650.28
2020-4-13245826.3665810
2020-4-14255976.3925970
2020-4-15266066.4076130.1
2020-4-16276406.4616300.15
2020-4-17286646.4986470.43
2020-4-18296846.5286640.58
2020-4-19306916.5386810.12
2020-4-20317196.5786990.54
2020-4-21327606.6337172.51
2020-4-22338016.6867355.78
2020-4-23348556.75175413.46
2020-4-24359836.89177257.07
2020-4-25369956.90379152.07
2020-4-263710396.94681164.01
2020-4-273810997.00283086.74
2020-4-283911197.0285084.95
2020-4-294011407.03987083.69
2020-4-304111747.06889090.44
2020-5-14212117.09991099.12
2020-5-24312357.11993199.2
2020-5-34412377.1295185.45
2020-5-44512537.13397280.76
2020-5-54612827.15699383.57
2020-5-64713347.1961015100.21
2020-5-74813617.2161036101.6
2020-5-84913857.2331058101.01
2020-5-95014097.2511079100.36
2020-5-105114307.265110197.84
2020-5-115214367.27112386.81
2020-5-125314527.281114581.83
2020-5-135414747.296116880.15
2020-5-145514707.293119065.7
2020-5-155614917.307121263.83
2020-5-165714977.311123555.46
2020-5-175815057.317125748.58
2020-5-185915137.322128042.25
2020-5-196015017.314130330.06
2020-5-206114927.308132520.85
2020-5-216214847.302134813.63
2020-5-226314787.29813718.33
2020-5-236414747.29613934.61
2020-5-246514577.28414161.16
2020-5-256614417.27314390
2020-5-266714337.26814610.57
2020-5-276814157.25514843.24
2020-5-286913787.228150611.01
2020-5-297013337.195152925.16
2020-5-307112967.167155142.05
2020-5-317212997.169157347.92
2020-6-17312897.162159558.92
2020-6-27412717.148161774.23
2020-6-37512087.0971639113.45
2020-6-47611167.0181660178.71
2020-6-57710786.9831682216.99
2020-6-67810066.9141703285.49
2020-6-77910196.9271724288.49
2020-6-88010596.9651745269.69
2020-6-98110997.0021765251.61
2020-6-108211627.0581785217.85
2020-6-118312307.1151805183.53
2020-6-128413037.1721825149.47
2020-6-138513717.2231844121.63
2020-6-148613867.2341863122.46
2020-6-158713817.2311882133.57
2020-6-168814557.2831900104.56
2020-6-178914787.2981918101.27
2020-6-189015437.341193679.95
2020-6-199115547.349195381.78
2020-6-209216467.406197053.47
2020-6-219316327.398198763.44
2020-6-229416067.382200378.71
2020-6-239516897.432201853.84
2020-6-249617707.479203334.22
2020-6-259718277.51204823.95
2020-6-269818417.518206223.83
2020-6-279919347.56720769.77
2020-6-2810019647.58320897.56
2020-6-2910120267.61421022.78
2020-6-3010220837.64221140.47
2020-7-110322007.69621262.55
2020-7-210422817.73221379.63
2020-7-310523667.769214822.08
2020-7-410625387.839215866.81
2020-7-510725797.855216778
2020-7-610826647.8882176109.07
2020-7-710928117.9412185179.26
2020-7-811029177.9782192239.07
2020-7-911131818.0652200437.28
2020-7-1011233898.1282206633.36
2020-7-1111335978.1882212865.89
2020-7-1211436658.2072218943.64
2020-7-1311536188.1942223875.37
2020-7-14116022270
2020-7-15117022300
2020-7-16118022330
2020-7-17119022360
2020-7-18120022370
2020-7-19121022380
2020-7-20122022390
2020-7-21123022390
2020-7-22124022380
2020-7-23125022370
2020-7-24126022350
2020-7-25127022320
2020-7-26128022290
2020-7-27129022250
2020-7-28130022200
2020-7-29131022150
2020-7-30132022090
2020-7-31133022030
2020-8-1134021960
2020-8-2135021890
2020-8-3136021810
Goodness of fit x2 = 10237.98
Today = 14-07-2020 / analyze starting from = 2020-3-23 to 13-07-2020
a=8.5954832069945 / b=8468383.4420928 / c=0.24450418942096

dayt[i]x[i]u[i]y(t[i])(x[i]-y(t[i]))2/y(t[i]
2020-3-23211955.2732151.97
2020-3-24222125.3572331.96
2020-3-25232355.462511.08
2020-3-26242535.5332691.06
2020-3-27252815.6382880.2
2020-3-28263135.7463070.1
2020-3-29273245.7813260.02
2020-3-30283345.8113450.41
2020-3-31293745.9243650.2
2020-4-1303925.9713850.12
2020-4-2314226.0454050.71
2020-4-3324416.0894250.6
2020-4-4334526.1144450.11
2020-4-5344746.1614650.16
2020-4-6354886.194850.01
2020-4-7365126.2385050.07
2020-4-8375276.2675260
2020-4-9385466.3035460
2020-4-10395566.3215670.23
2020-4-11405716.3475870.49
2020-4-12415786.366081.53
2020-4-13425826.3666293.53
2020-4-14435976.3926494.28
2020-4-15446066.4076706.17
2020-4-16456406.4616903.75
2020-4-17466646.4987113.17
2020-4-18476846.5287323.16
2020-4-19486916.5387525.05
2020-4-20497196.5787733.8
2020-4-21507606.6337931.43
2020-4-22518016.6868140.21
2020-4-23528556.7518340.5
2020-4-24539836.89185419.18
2020-4-25549956.90387516.38
2020-4-265510396.94689522.98
2020-4-275610997.00291536.66
2020-4-285711197.0293535.81
2020-4-295811407.03995635.4
2020-4-305911747.06897640.14
2020-5-16012117.09999646.39
2020-5-26112357.119101547.23
2020-5-36212377.12103539.09
2020-5-46312537.133105536.94
2020-5-56412827.156107539.76
2020-5-66513347.196109452.24
2020-5-76613617.216111454.58
2020-5-86713857.233113355.64
2020-5-96814097.251115356.74
2020-5-106914307.265117256.56
2020-5-117014367.27119150.09
2020-5-127114527.281121048.04
2020-5-137214747.296122948.47
2020-5-147314707.293124839.18
2020-5-157414917.307126739.35
2020-5-167514977.311128634.46
2020-5-177615057.317130530.61
2020-5-187715137.322132327.07
2020-5-197815017.314134218.78
2020-5-207914927.308136012.68
2020-5-218014847.30213788
2020-5-228114787.29813974.67
2020-5-238214747.29614152.43
2020-5-248314577.28414330.39
2020-5-258414417.27314510.07
2020-5-268514337.26814690.89
2020-5-278614157.25514863.48
2020-5-288713787.228150410.66
2020-5-298813337.195152223.52
2020-5-308912967.167153938.58
2020-5-319012997.169155742.79
2020-6-19112897.162157451.74
2020-6-29212717.148159164.59
2020-6-39312087.097160899.83
2020-6-49411167.0181625159.84
2020-6-59510786.9831642194.13
2020-6-69610066.9141659257.37
2020-6-79710196.9271676257.73
2020-6-89810596.9651692237.38
2020-6-99910997.0021709218.02
2020-6-1010011627.0581725184.27
2020-6-1110112307.1151742150.65
2020-6-1210213037.1721758118.04
2020-6-1310313717.223177491.87
2020-6-1410413867.234179091.54
2020-6-1510513817.2311806100.39
2020-6-1610614557.283182274.22
2020-6-1710714787.298183870.74
2020-6-1810815437.341185452.28
2020-6-1910915547.349187053.4
2020-6-2011016467.406188530.44
2020-6-2111116327.398190138.07
2020-6-2211216067.382191650.28
2020-6-2311316897.432193130.49
2020-6-2411417707.479194616.07
2020-6-2511518277.5119619.29
2020-6-2611618417.51819779.36
2020-6-2711719347.56719911.69
2020-6-2811819647.58320060.91
2020-6-2911920267.61420210.01
2020-6-3012020837.64220361.07
2020-7-112122007.696205010.85
2020-7-212222817.732206522.53
2020-7-312323667.769207939.41
2020-7-412425387.839209494.12
2020-7-512525797.8552108105.09
2020-7-612626647.8882122138.17
2020-7-712728117.9412136212.91
2020-7-812829177.9782150273.17
2020-7-912931818.0652164477.42
2020-7-1013033898.1282178672.93
2020-7-1113135978.1882192900.5
2020-7-1213236658.2072205965.47
2020-7-1313336188.1942219881.54
2020-7-14134022320
2020-7-15135022460
2020-7-16136022590
2020-7-17137022720
2020-7-18138022860
2020-7-19139022990
2020-7-20140023120
2020-7-21141023250
2020-7-22142023380
2020-7-23143023500
2020-7-24144023630
2020-7-25145023760
2020-7-26146023880
2020-7-27147024010
2020-7-28148024130
2020-7-29149024260
2020-7-30150024380
2020-7-31151024500
2020-8-1152024620
2020-8-2153024740
2020-8-3154024860
Goodness of fit x2 = 8731.84