COVID-19 Online Forecast Italy Statistics Forum


Italy / Forecast of the Coronavirus Epidemic / Update 07.07.2020
Confirmed Recover Deaths Active Forecast 1 Forecast 2


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Today = 07-07-2020 / analyze starting from = 2020-2-24 to 06-07-2020
a=75.066845114316 / b=120909.89268117 / c=0.00085416212100912

dayt[i]x[i]u[i]y(t[i])(x[i]-y(t[i]))2/y(t[i]
2020-2-2432215.39814311023.79
2020-2-2543115.7416171055.64
2020-2-2654386.08218251054.25
2020-2-2765936.38520551040.53
2020-2-2878216.7112310960.57
2020-2-29810536.9592593915.14
2020-3-1915777.3632905607.79
2020-3-21018357.5153250616.36
2020-3-31122637.7243629514.46
2020-3-41227067.9034045443.68
2020-3-51332968.14502323.15
2020-3-61439168.2735001235.59
2020-3-71550618.529554642.53
2020-3-81663878.76261409.87
2020-3-91779858.9856787211.44
2020-3-101887949.0827488227.62
2020-3-1119105909.2688248664.88
2020-3-1220130529.47790691748.72
2020-3-1321149559.61399552510.5
2020-3-1422177509.784109094288.89
2020-3-1523206039.933119346295.9
2020-3-16242307310.046130337732.73
2020-3-17252606210.168142099885.93
2020-3-18262871010.2651546511342.79
2020-3-19273319010.411680315980.64
2020-3-20283854910.561822522662.45
2020-3-21294268110.6621973426680.31
2020-3-22304663810.752133230019
2020-3-23315082610.8362301933587.4
2020-3-24325403010.8972479834456.71
2020-3-25335752110.962666935690.92
2020-3-26346201311.0352863138918.92
2020-3-27356641411.1043068641597.53
2020-3-28367006511.1573283242223.47
2020-3-29377388011.213506842955.33
2020-3-30387552811.2323739238893.43
2020-3-31397763511.263980235959.23
2020-4-1408057211.2974229634637.65
2020-4-2418304911.3274486932488.11
2020-4-3428538811.3554751730182.8
2020-4-4438827411.3885023528802.51
2020-4-5449124611.4215301927561.71
2020-4-6459318711.4425586124940.66
2020-4-7469406711.4525875521222.33
2020-4-8479526211.4646169318264.97
2020-4-9489687711.4816466816041.61
2020-4-10499827311.4966767113838.65
2020-4-115010026911.5167069212374.57
2020-4-125110225311.5357372211041.55
2020-4-135210361611.548767509403.68
2020-4-145310429111.555797677539.5
2020-4-155410541811.566827616202.61
2020-4-165510660711.577857205089.12
2020-4-175610696211.58886343789.75
2020-4-185710777111.588914902896.98
2020-4-195810825711.592942772072.73
2020-4-205910823711.592969841305.6
2020-4-216010770911.58799598660.53
2020-4-226110769911.587102107306.18
2020-4-236210684811.57910450152.68
2020-4-246310652711.5761067690.55
2020-4-256410584711.5710890085.6
2020-4-266510610311.572110883206.13
2020-4-276610581311.569112710422.16
2020-4-286710520511.564114372734.84
2020-4-296810465711.5581158601083.39
2020-4-306910155111.5281171672081.49
2020-5-17010094311.5221182872543.18
2020-5-27110070411.521192132873.93
2020-5-37210017911.5151199423256.5
2020-5-4739998011.5131204693484.87
2020-5-5749846711.4971207924126.28
2020-5-6759152811.4241209097139.79
2020-5-7768962411.4031208198054.88
2020-5-8778796111.3851205248798.08
2020-5-9788484211.34912002410313.02
2020-5-10798332411.3311932210860.54
2020-5-11808248811.3211842210904.08
2020-5-12818126611.30511732811084.26
2020-5-13827845711.2711604612175.66
2020-5-14837644011.24411458112696.58
2020-5-15847207011.18511294214791.49
2020-5-16857018711.15911113715088.86
2020-5-17866835111.13210917415264.87
2020-5-18876655311.10610706215327.68
2020-5-19886512911.08410481215024.73
2020-5-20896275211.04710243415372.83
2020-5-21906096011.0189993915203.41
2020-5-22915932210.9919733914848.25
2020-5-23925775210.9649464414380.87
2020-5-24935659410.9449186713543.71
2020-5-25945530010.9218901912772.72
2020-5-26955294210.8778611312777.6
2020-5-27965096610.8398315812462.74
2020-5-28974798610.7798016912919.66
2020-5-29984617510.747715512439.38
2020-5-30994369110.6857412712497.05
2020-5-311004207510.6477109711846.87
2020-6-11014136710.636807410477.85
2020-6-21023989310.594650689740.6
2020-6-31033929710.579620898366.89
2020-6-41043842910.557591457256.32
2020-6-51053697610.518562456601.52
2020-6-61063587710.488533955747.8
2020-6-71073526210.471506044651.44
2020-6-81083473010.455478763609.99
2020-6-91093287210.4452183371.24
2020-6-101103171010.364426352799.75
2020-6-111113063710.33401312246.2
2020-6-121122899710.275377092013.06
2020-6-131132748510.221353731759.3
2020-6-141142627410.176331251417.27
2020-6-151152590910.16230967826.41
2020-6-161162456910.10928901649.34
2020-6-171172392510.08326926334.49
2020-6-181182310110.04825043150.64
2020-6-19119215439.97823252125.67
2020-6-20120212129.962215525.39
2020-6-21121209729.9511994353.07
2020-6-22122206379.93518422266.23
2020-6-23123195739.88216988393.2
2020-6-24124186559.83415639581.47
2020-6-25125183039.815143721074.62
2020-6-26126176389.778131861502.78
2020-6-27127168369.731120771875.05
2020-6-28128166819.722110422879.1
2020-6-29129164969.711100794085.22
2020-6-30130155639.65391844430.38
2020-7-1131152559.63383545699.87
2020-7-2132150609.6275867362.01
2020-7-3133148849.60868779320.62
2020-7-4134146219.59622411327.88
2020-7-5135146429.592562314464.56
2020-7-6136147099.596507118313.12
2020-7-7137045660
2020-7-8138041040
2020-7-9139036820
2020-7-10140032990
2020-7-11141029500
2020-7-12142026330
2020-7-13143023470
2020-7-14144020880
2020-7-15145018540
2020-7-16146016440
2020-7-17147014550
2020-7-18148012860
2020-7-19149011340
2020-7-2015009980
2020-7-2115108780
2020-7-2215207700
2020-7-2315306750
2020-7-2415405900
2020-7-2515505150
2020-7-2615604490
2020-7-2715703910
2020-7-2815803390
2020-7-2915902940
2020-7-3016002540
2020-7-3116102200
2020-8-116201900
2020-8-216301630
2020-8-316401400
2020-8-416501200
2020-8-516601030
2020-8-61670880
2020-8-71680750
2020-8-81690640
2020-8-91700540
2020-8-101710460
2020-8-111720390
2020-8-121730330
2020-8-131740280
2020-8-141750230
2020-8-151760200
2020-8-161770160
2020-8-171780140
2020-8-181790110
2020-8-19180090
2020-8-20181080
2020-8-21182060
2020-8-22183050
2020-8-23184040
2020-8-24185030
2020-8-25186030
2020-8-26187020
2020-8-27188020
2020-8-28189010
2020-8-29190010
2020-8-30191010
2020-8-31192010
2020-9-1193000
2020-9-2194000
2020-9-3195000
2020-9-4196000
2020-9-5197000
2020-9-6198000
2020-9-7199000
2020-9-8200000
2020-9-9201000
2020-9-10202000
2020-9-11203000
2020-9-12204000
2020-9-13205000
2020-9-14206000
2020-9-15207000
2020-9-16208000
2020-9-17209000
2020-9-18210000
2020-9-19211000
2020-9-20212000
2020-9-21213000
2020-9-22214000
2020-9-23215000
2020-9-24216000
2020-9-25217000
2020-9-26218000
2020-9-27219000
2020-9-28220000
2020-9-29221000
2020-9-30222000
2020-10-1223000
2020-10-2224000
2020-10-3225000
2020-10-4226000
2020-10-5227000
2020-10-6228000
2020-10-7229000
2020-10-8230000
2020-10-9231000
Goodness of fit x2 = 1309363.45
Today = 07-07-2020 / analyze starting from = 2020-2-24 to 06-07-2020
a=4.5022064598962 / b=9112237.204549 / c=4.9177361118553

dayt[i]x[i]u[i]y(t[i])(x[i]-y(t[i]))2/y(t[i]
2020-2-24262215.39817313.1
2020-2-25273115.742638.74
2020-2-26284386.0823886.44
2020-2-27295936.3855572.24
2020-2-28308216.7117821.89
2020-2-293110536.95910740.43
2020-3-13215777.363144511.91
2020-3-23318357.51519092.92
2020-3-33422637.724247918.87
2020-3-43527067.903316767.35
2020-3-53632968.13988120.15
2020-3-63739168.2734952216.81
2020-3-73850618.5296070167.88
2020-3-83963878.7627352126.79
2020-3-94079858.985880576.5
2020-3-104187949.08210435258.3
2020-3-1142105909.26812246223.96
2020-3-1243130529.4771423798.74
2020-3-1344149559.61316409128.91
2020-3-1445177509.7841875754.13
2020-3-1546206039.9332127621.32
2020-3-16472307310.0462395732.69
2020-3-17482606210.1682679119.87
2020-3-18492871010.2652976537.42
2020-3-19503319010.41328653.21
2020-3-20513854910.5636076169.46
2020-3-21524268110.66239381276.4
2020-3-22534663810.7542763350.99
2020-3-23545082610.83646204462.31
2020-3-24555403010.89749684380.1
2020-3-25565752110.9653184353.51
2020-3-26576201311.03556687500.37
2020-3-27586641411.10460172647.48
2020-3-28597006511.15763621652.57
2020-3-29607388011.2167017702.66
2020-3-30617552811.23270343382.1
2020-3-31627763511.2673583223.11
2020-4-1638057211.29776721193.24
2020-4-2648304911.32779744136.9
2020-4-3658538811.3558264091.35
2020-4-4668827411.3888539796.92
2020-4-5679124611.42188004119.38
2020-4-6689318711.4429045482.54
2020-4-7699406711.4529273919.01
2020-4-8709526211.464948521.76
2020-4-9719687711.481967900.08
2020-4-10729827311.496985480.77
2020-4-117310026911.5161001240.21
2020-4-127410225311.5351015185.32
2020-4-137510361611.5481027287.67
2020-4-147610429111.5551037562.76
2020-4-157710541811.5661046036.34
2020-4-167810660711.57710527316.9
2020-4-177910696211.5810576813.47
2020-4-188010777111.58810609326.53
2020-4-198110825711.59210625237.8
2020-4-208210823711.59210625237.08
2020-4-218310770911.58710609724.49
2020-4-228410769911.58710579334.3
2020-4-238510684811.57910534921.33
2020-4-248610652711.57610476929.48
2020-4-258710584711.5710406130.62
2020-4-268810610311.57210323379.75
2020-4-278910581311.569102292121.2
2020-4-289010520511.564101244154.95
2020-4-299110465711.558100097207.68
2020-4-309210155111.5289885973.28
2020-5-19310094311.52297536118.94
2020-5-29410070411.5296137216.94
2020-5-39510017911.51594667320.92
2020-5-4969998011.51393133503.29
2020-5-5979846711.49791543523.68
2020-5-6989152811.4248990229.4
2020-5-7998962411.4038821622.44
2020-5-81008796111.3858649324.9
2020-5-91018484211.349847370.13
2020-5-101028332411.33829531.65
2020-5-111038248811.328114822.12
2020-5-121048126611.3057932547.45
2020-5-131057845711.277749012.04
2020-5-141067644011.244756488.29
2020-5-151077207011.1857380140.63
2020-5-161087018711.1597195443.44
2020-5-171096835111.1327011244.24
2020-5-181106655311.1066827643.5
2020-5-191116512911.0846645026.3
2020-5-201126275211.0476463855.06
2020-5-211136096011.0186284256.36
2020-5-221145932210.9916106349.68
2020-5-231155775210.9645930540.72
2020-5-241165659410.9445757016.57
2020-5-251175530010.921558595.61
2020-5-261185294210.8775417428.05
2020-5-271195096610.8395251745.82
2020-5-281204798610.77950888165.56
2020-5-291214617510.7449289196.82
2020-5-301224369110.68547721340.44
2020-5-311234207510.64746185365.8
2020-6-11244136710.6344681245.85
2020-6-21253989310.59443210254.67
2020-6-31263929710.57941772146.71
2020-6-41273842910.5574036893.2
2020-6-51283697610.51838998104.9
2020-6-61293587710.4883766284.67
2020-6-71303526210.4713636033.21
2020-6-81313473010.455350933.76
2020-6-91323287210.43385928.81
2020-6-101333171010.3643265927.62
2020-6-111343063710.333149323.29
2020-6-121352899710.2753036061.24
2020-6-131362748510.22129260107.73
2020-6-141372627410.17628192130.62
2020-6-151382590910.1622715757.4
2020-6-161392456910.1092615396.03
2020-6-171402392510.0832518162.67
2020-6-181412310110.0482423953.44
2020-6-19142215439.97823327136.45
2020-6-20143212129.9622244467.68
2020-6-21144209729.9512159017.73
2020-6-22145206379.935207650.79
2020-6-23146195739.882199677.79
2020-6-24147186559.8341919615.27
2020-6-25148183039.815184511.2
2020-6-26149176389.778177320.51
2020-6-27150168369.731170382.42
2020-6-28151166819.722163695.93
2020-6-29152164969.7111572337.95
2020-6-30153155639.6531510014.15
2020-7-1154152559.6331450039.27
2020-7-2155150609.621392193.05
2020-7-3156148849.60813364172.8
2020-7-4157146219.5912827250.8
2020-7-5158146429.59212310441.65
2020-7-6159147099.59611812710.25
2020-7-71600113330
2020-7-81610108720
2020-7-91620104280
2020-7-101630100020
2020-7-11164095910
2020-7-12165091970
2020-7-13166088180
2020-7-14167084530
2020-7-15168081030
2020-7-16169077670
2020-7-17170074430
2020-7-18171071330
2020-7-19172068350
2020-7-20173065490
2020-7-21174062740
2020-7-22175060110
2020-7-23176057580
2020-7-24177055150
2020-7-25178052820
2020-7-26179050590
2020-7-27180048450
2020-7-28181046390
2020-7-29182044420
2020-7-30183042530
2020-7-31184040720
2020-8-1185038990
2020-8-2186037320
2020-8-3187035730
2020-8-4188034200
2020-8-5189032740
2020-8-6190031330
2020-8-7191029990
2020-8-8192028700
2020-8-9193027470
2020-8-10194026290
2020-8-11195025150
2020-8-12196024070
2020-8-13197023030
2020-8-14198022040
2020-8-15199021090
2020-8-16200020180
2020-8-17201019310
2020-8-18202018470
2020-8-19203017670
2020-8-20204016910
2020-8-21205016180
2020-8-22206015470
2020-8-23207014800
2020-8-24208014160
2020-8-25209013550
2020-8-26210012960
2020-8-27211012400
2020-8-28212011860
2020-8-29213011350
2020-8-30214010850
2020-8-31215010380
2020-9-121609930
2020-9-221709500
2020-9-321809090
2020-9-421908690
2020-9-522008310
2020-9-622107950
2020-9-722207610
2020-9-822307280
2020-9-922406960
2020-9-1022506660
2020-9-1122606370
2020-9-1222706090
2020-9-1322805830
2020-9-1422905570
2020-9-1523005330
2020-9-1623105100
2020-9-1723204880
2020-9-1823304670
2020-9-1923404460
2020-9-2023504270
2020-9-2123604090
2020-9-2223703910
2020-9-2323803740
2020-9-2423903580
2020-9-2524003420
2020-9-2624103270
2020-9-2724203130
2020-9-2824303000
2020-9-2924402870
2020-9-3024502740
2020-10-124602620
2020-10-224702510
2020-10-324802400
2020-10-424902300
2020-10-525002200
2020-10-625102100
2020-10-725202010
2020-10-825301920
2020-10-925401840
Goodness of fit x2 = 15543.07